Find Your Simple Math

or: It’s not that complicated, you’re just making it harder than it needs to be

Apr 17, 2025

If the simple math tells you what matters, the next step is understanding how it actually works. That’s where the detail lives. That’s where the work begins. I wrote a follow-up post about building the full operating model—every assumption, every lever, every step of the business. You can read it here:

👉 Build the Model. Do the Work. Know the Business.

At AOL Local, I was running revenue for what felt like an incredibly complex machine. Hundreds of sellers. Local teams. Inside sales. Regional overlays. National partnerships. Dozens of products. I was deep in the chaos of it all—spinning out about some issue—when my Head of Sales, Jim Lipuma1, stopped me mid-moment.

“Mark,” he said, “it’s a simple business.
How many sellers do we have?
How many deals do they close each week?
What’s the average deal size?
That’s it.”

He wasn’t ignoring the complexity. He was building a bridge through it.

Because the truth is, every business has a simple math equation at the top. If you can’t write it down in a few lines, you’re probably too deep in the weeds.

Jim’s point wasn’t that the business was easy. It wasn’t. Hiring the right sellers? Hard. Keeping them? Hard. Helping them close? Really hard. But once you define the math, you know where to look. You’ve got a calm starting place. And when something’s off, you don’t panic—you zoom in.

Not enough deals getting done? Look at pipeline, close rates, pricing pressure, messaging, enablement.

Seller headcount too low? Look at recruiting, retention, comp structure, manager coverage.

Average deal size down? Look at discounting, packaging, competition, customer segmentation.

The math is simple. The drivers underneath it are not.

But that’s the point.

When you’re a CEO, it’s easy to get overwhelmed by the hundred dials you could be turning. You’ve got dashboards, updates, metrics, meetings—and everything feels important. The simple math gives you a way to start. It tells you which parts of the machine are working and which parts need your attention.

Start with your simple math. Are we Red, Yellow, or Green? If one number turns yellow, now you know where to look underneath.

I’m not saying this replaces the deeper model. You’ll need that too. (In fact, the next post is about exactly that—how we built a post-acquisition operating model for Bitly that broke everything down to the cell-level. Stay tuned.)

But this post isn’t about living in the model.

It’s about starting from the top.

It’s about building a bridge from calm clarity to informed action.

You don’t have to solve the whole machine at once.

You just have to find the math.

If this post helped you—or made you think of someone—please consider forwarding it to them. And let me know what resonated or missed. I read every reply.

Mark Josephson

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